What Are My Chances of Getting Planning Permission?

If you're about to apply for planning permission, you've probably wondered: what are the odds?

Most advice online gives you vague reassurance. "It depends on your council." "Every application is different." All true — but not particularly useful when you're about to spend thousands on architects and planning fees.

We took a different approach. We built a dataset of over 2,500,000+ real planning decisions from councils across England and Wales. Not government summaries. Not estimates. Actual application-level data, scraped directly from council planning portals.

Here's what we found.

The National Picture

That's the headline figure. Roughly 85 out of every 100 planning applications that go to a decision are approved. That sounds encouraging — and broadly, it is.

But averages hide a lot. The council you're in, the type of project you're proposing, and even the specific ward your property sits in can shift your odds significantly.

Approval Rates Vary Enormously by Council

Some councils approve over 95% of applications. Others hover below 70%. That's a gap of 25 percentage points — and it can mean the difference between a straightforward approval and a drawn-out fight with your planning department.

Northern councils tend to approve at higher rates. London boroughs are consistently tougher. But even within London, there are boroughs that run well above average and ones that are notoriously difficult.

See what gets approved in your council →

Extension Type Matters More Than You Think

Not all projects are created equal in the eyes of a planning officer. Our data shows clear differences in approval rates by extension type.

Rear extensions — the classic kitchen-diner expansion — tend to be among the most commonly approved. They're familiar to planning officers, they're often covered by precedent, and if you stay within certain size limits, many don't even need permission at all.

Loft conversions with dormers are also generally well-received, though there are pockets where approval rates dip — particularly in conservation areas.

Two-storey extensions and anything that materially changes the streetscape tend to face more scrutiny. Not necessarily refused — but scrutinised more carefully.

The detail matters. And the detail varies by council.

Your Ward Tells You More Than Your Borough

This was one of the more surprising findings in our dataset. Within a single council, approval rates can vary by 20 percentage points or more between wards.

That means your next-door neighbour in the same borough might have a materially different planning environment than you do — simply because they're on the other side of a ward boundary.

Conservation areas, flood zones, Green Belt proximity — all of these create micro-climates within a council's overall statistics. The borough average only tells you so much.

So — What Are Your Chances?

Honestly? If you're in a typical English council, proposing a sensible rear extension or loft conversion, the odds are in your favour. The national data supports that.

But "typical" doesn't mean your council. And "sensible" doesn't mean your project.

The homeowners who get caught out are the ones who assume their area is average. The ones who spend £5,000 on drawings before checking whether similar projects nearby have been approved or refused.

That's exactly what PlanningLens was built for. Not vague national statistics — but ultra-local planning intelligence based on what's actually been decided near your property.

What You Can Do Right Now

Before you brief an architect or submit an application, there are a few things worth checking:

Look at what's been approved nearby. Not just in your borough — in your immediate area. Similar proposals to yours that got the green light are your strongest evidence that the council is likely to approve yours too.

Check the refusal patterns. If your council is refusing a higher-than-average proportion of a certain extension type, that's a signal worth paying attention to. It doesn't mean yours will be refused — but it tells you where the pressure points are.

Understand where your council sits. Is it in the top quartile? Bottom quartile? Somewhere in between? Context matters.

Check the approval rate in your council →

The Bottom Line

Planning permission isn't a lottery. The data shows clear, measurable patterns in how councils make decisions. Your outcome depends on where you are, what you're proposing, and how it compares to what's been decided before.

The homeowners who go in with that information tend to get better outcomes. Not because the data guarantees approval — but because it helps you make smarter decisions before you commit serious money.

We built PlanningLens to make that information accessible to everyone, not just developers and planning consultants. Over two million decisions. 226 councils. Ward-level analysis. Refusal pattern detection.

And it starts with a postcode.