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PlanningLens Research · Briefing #06

Housing test hits councils approving major schemes at the same rate as councils it spares

Outside heavily Green Belt areas, councils below 75% on the Housing Delivery Test approved 81% of major housing decisions. Councils at 95% or above also approved 81%. In heavily Green Belt areas the picture was markedly different.

81%=81%

Major housing decisions approved outside heavily Green Belt areas, April 2022 to March 2025: councils below 75% on the 2025 Housing Delivery Test (1,428 of 1,762) against councils at 95% or above (3,598 of 4,444).

Also measured
Below 75% on the test
95% or above
Outside heavily Green Belt areas, each council counted equally (median council)
83.7%
83.2%
Heavily Green Belt councils (Green Belt covers 25% or more of the land), each council counted equally (median council)
70.8%
85.0%
Below 75% = the Housing Delivery Test band that now triggers the Framework's unmet-need consequence; 95% or above = the band with no consequence. English councils outside London with at least 20 major housing decisions: 144 with Green Belt under 25% of land, 85 with 25% or more. Source: PlanningLens analysis of MHCLG statistics. Download the medians chart.

What the figures show

Councils across much of England face the government's toughest housing-test consequence even though they approved major applications at the same rate as councils facing no consequence.

PlanningLens matched the 2025 Housing Delivery Test with 12,595 official MHCLG decisions on major housing applications across 229 councils. Outside heavily Green Belt areas, councils below 75% approved 81.0% of decisions. Councils at 95% or above also approved 81.0%.

The pattern changes sharply in heavily Green Belt areas. There, failing councils approved a median 70.8% of major applications, compared with 85.0% among councils at 95% or above.

A score below 75% now counts as evidence of unmet housing need under the new National Planning Policy Framework, strengthening the case for development outside settlements. Green Belt land is governed separately.

Median approval rate for major housing applications, by Housing Delivery Test result
Green Belt coverageFailed test (below 75%)Passed (95% or more)Difference
Less than 25% of the land 144 councils83.7%83.2%+0.5 points
25% or more 85 councils70.8%85.0%-14.2 points

Heavily Green Belt areas

Most of the councils that both missed their target and refused often are the districts around London. Mole Valley approved 39% of its 36 major applications and delivered 72% of the homes required. Epping Forest approved 47% and delivered 66%. St Albans approved 62% and delivered 46%. Sevenoaks, Hertsmere and Tandridge each approved about two-thirds of their major schemes while delivering between 25% and 38% of their target.

Green Belt is an obvious potential constraint in these authorities, but MHCLG's statistics do not record why individual applications were refused. The analysis therefore cannot say whether Green Belt caused either the lower approval rate or the lower delivery. What it shows is that the two go together in Green Belt-heavy councils and not elsewhere.

Not every Green Belt council fits the pattern. Bradford, Kirklees, Stockport and Basildon are all heavily Green Belt, all failed the test and all approved between 86% and 90% of their major schemes. Taken together, the 85 Green Belt-heavy authorities approved 80.1% of major applications, in line with the rest of England (80.5%).

Elsewhere in England

The 35 councils that failed the test outside heavily Green Belt areas are largely England's cities and their neighbours. Bristol delivered 41% of the homes required while approving 92 of 102 major applications. Birmingham delivered 57% and approved 124 of 145. Sheffield delivered 58% and approved 93 of 110. Sandwell and Wolverhampton approved 89% and 96% of their major schemes and delivered 34% and 59% of their targets. A few failing councils outside the Green Belt did refuse often (Horsham approved 49% of its major schemes, Lancaster 54%, Lewes 57%), but as a group they are indistinguishable from the councils that passed.

What this looks like in individual councils

Eight councils from the frozen data. Not a ranking.
CouncilHousing target achievedMajor schemes approvedGreen Belt
Bristol41%90%92 of 1026%
Birmingham57%86%124 of 14514%
Sheffield58%85%93 of 11024.6%
Mole Valley72%39%14 of 3676%
Epping Forest66%47%18 of 3891%
St Albans46%62%37 of 6082%
Sevenoaks25%67%32 of 4893%
Wirral123%63%36 of 5746%

Bristol, Birmingham and Sheffield all missed their targets by a wide margin while approving more than four in five of the major schemes put to them. Mole Valley, Epping Forest, St Albans and Sevenoaks missed theirs while approving between two-fifths and two-thirds, in districts where Green Belt covers three-quarters or more of the land. Wirral shows the two things can come apart even in the Green Belt: it delivered 123% of its target while approving 63% of its major applications.

Why it matters

The test's consequences make planning policy more permissive where homes are not being built. Below 95% a council must publish an action plan. Below 85% it must show a larger buffer of housing land. A score below 75% now counts as evidence of unmet housing need under the new National Planning Policy Framework, strengthening the case for development outside settlements. Green Belt land is governed separately.

In heavily Green Belt England, the councils now labelled as having unmet need are broadly the ones approving fewer major schemes, although that route does not apply to Green Belt land. Across the rest of England the same label falls on councils whose approval rates are no different from those it spares.

The decisions analysed run to March 2025, almost entirely before grey belt changed Green Belt decision-making, so this is a baseline for the old regime. We will re-run the same analysis, unchanged, when the 2026 test is published, and again when MHCLG's figures first cover a full year under grey belt.

What the figures don't prove

The analysis shows an association, not cause and effect. It cannot show that planning refusals caused under-delivery, that Green Belt caused either outcome, or that homes given permission subsequently went unbuilt. MHCLG counts planning decisions rather than the number of homes in each application, and its major-dwellings figures include reserved-matters and section 73 decisions. Approval and delivery are also measured over the same three-year period, although homes completed during it may have received permission earlier.

Methodology

The test results come from MHCLG's Housing Delivery Test: 2025 measurement. Planning decisions come from MHCLG's Live tables on planning application statistics (PS2 open data table), for the twelve quarters from April 2022 to March 2025, the period the 2025 test measures. A major housing application, in MHCLG's definition, is a scheme of ten or more homes, or a site of half a hectare or more where the number is not known. Green Belt coverage comes from MHCLG's Local authority Green Belt statistics for England: 2024 to 2025.

A council is included if it made at least 20 major housing decisions over the three years and returned data for at least ten of the twelve quarters; 229 councils outside London qualify. London is analysed separately because its housing is often recorded under mixed-use schemes. Failing means below 75% of the housing requirement; passing means 95% or above. The approval rates quoted are those of the median council in each group. The methodology was registered before the results were analysed. The underlying CSV, the pre-registration, the full results and the analysis code are published below.

Sources and downloads

Data: Housing Delivery Test 2025 and major housing approval by council (CSV, 301 rows), licence CC BY 4.0 with attribution to PlanningLens; the underlying figures are MHCLG statistics under the Open Government Licence. Pre-registration (frozen 2 September 2026, four logged amendments) · full results (re-frozen 3 September after the identifier correction) · results as first frozen on 2 September · analysis code · four-number chart · scatter chart of all 229 councils.

Official sources: Housing Delivery Test: 2025 measurement · Live tables on planning application statistics (PS2 open data table) · Local authority Green Belt statistics for England: 2024 to 2025 · National Planning Policy Framework (August 2026).

Related PlanningLens research: committee versus delegated planning decisions · how long planning permission takes · planning approval rankings by council.

Across 12,595 decisions on major housing applications in 229 English councils outside London, April 2022 to March 2025, and where Green Belt covers less than a quarter of the land, councils scoring below 75% on the 2025 Housing Delivery Test approved 81.0% of major housing decisions (1,428 of 1,762) against 81.0% for councils scoring 95% or more (3,598 of 4,444); the median council in each group approved 83.7% and 83.2%. Where Green Belt covers a quarter or more, the median council approved 70.8% and 85.0% respectively (PlanningLens analysis of MHCLG statistics, September 2026).

For quotation. Attribution: "PlanningLens analysis of MHCLG Housing Delivery Test and planning-decision statistics", with a link to this page. Corrections and questions: hello@planninglens.co.uk.

Frequently asked questions

What is the Housing Delivery Test?

An annual MHCLG measurement comparing the net homes completed in a planning authority's area over the previous three financial years with the homes it was required to deliver, expressed as a percentage. The 2025 measurement covers 2022/23 to 2024/25 and was published on 17 August 2026.

What happens when a council fails the Housing Delivery Test?

Under the National Planning Policy Framework published in August 2026, a result below 95% requires an action plan, below 85% requires a larger buffer of deliverable housing land, and below 75% is treated as evidence of unmet housing need for the purposes of policy S5(1)(j), which supports development outside settlements. S5 does not apply to Green Belt land, which has its own policies.

Do councils that fail housing targets reject more housing applications?

Outside heavily Green Belt areas, no: councils below 75% on the 2025 test approved 81.0% of major housing decisions and councils at 95% or above approved 81.0%; counting each council equally, medians of 83.7% and 83.2%. Where Green Belt covers a quarter or more of the land, yes on average: median approval 70.8% against 85.0%.

Does Green Belt explain housing under-delivery?

The analysis cannot say. Lower approval rates and lower delivery go together in Green Belt-heavy authorities and not elsewhere, but MHCLG's decision statistics record no reasons for refusal, so the analysis makes no causal claim in either direction.

What counts as a major housing application?

In MHCLG's statistics, development of ten or more dwellings, or a site of half a hectare or more where the number of dwellings is not known, classified by the principal use of the scheme.

What proportion of major housing applications are approved?

80.3% of the 13,401 decisions on major housing applications in the 250 eligible English authorities, April 2022 to March 2025 (10,759 granted, 2,642 refused). This includes reserved-matters and section 73 decisions, which are nearly always granted, so it overstates the approval rate for brand-new schemes.

The evidence in full

Everything below is the working behind the figures above: all 229 councils, the full lists of failing councils, the pre-registered anomaly lists, the statistical checks and the complete methodology.

Explore all 229 councils (scatter chart)

Each point is one council. Red: Green Belt covers 25% or more of the land; blue: less. The dashed bars are the group medians. Twelve councils above 250% on the test are drawn at the right-hand edge. Hover over a point for the council.

Housing Delivery Test 2025 result against major housing approval rate, 229 English authorities outside London Each point is an authority. Red: Green Belt covers 25% or more of the land (85 authorities). Blue: less than 25% (144). Dashed horizontal bars show each group's median approval rate for authorities below 75% and at 95% or above. 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250%+ HDT 75% HDT 85% HDT 95% Housing Delivery Test 2025 result (homes delivered as % of homes required, 2022/23–2024/25) Major housing applications granted, % median 70.8% median 83.7% median 85.0% median 83.2% Arun: HDT 84%, approval 64.4% (65/101), Green Belt none Ashford: HDT 75%, approval 55.6% (25/45), Green Belt none Basingstoke and Deane: HDT 94%, approval 67.6% (25/37), Green Belt none Babergh: HDT 147%, approval 62.5% (25/40), Green Belt none Bedford: HDT 94%, approval 74.5% (41/55), Green Belt none Boston: HDT 127%, approval 97.0% (32/33), Green Belt none Bassetlaw: HDT 357%, approval 79.7% (47/59), Green Belt none Breckland: HDT 144%, approval 84.5% (49/58), Green Belt none Canterbury: HDT 79%, approval 92.1% (35/38), Green Belt none Brighton and Hove: HDT 50%, approval 74.3% (26/35), Green Belt none Braintree: HDT 150%, approval 66.7% (46/69), Green Belt none Darlington: HDT 285%, approval 100.0% (21/21), Green Belt none Colchester: HDT 109%, approval 83.0% (44/53), Green Belt none Cornwall: HDT 94%, approval 84.2% (192/228), Green Belt none Chichester: HDT 124%, approval 65.9% (29/44), Green Belt none Charnwood: HDT 62%, approval 86.5% (45/52), Green Belt none Derbyshire Dales: HDT 90%, approval 65.7% (23/35), Green Belt none Dover: HDT 108%, approval 87.8% (72/82), Green Belt none East Devon: HDT 84%, approval 69.7% (23/33), Green Belt none Eastleigh: HDT 94%, approval 61.5% (16/26), Green Belt none Eastbourne: HDT 23%, approval 78.3% (18/23), Green Belt none East Riding of Yorkshire: HDT 257%, approval 83.2% (104/125), Green Belt none East Lindsey: HDT 129%, approval 94.4% (85/90), Green Belt none East Hampshire: HDT 79%, approval 70.4% (19/27), Green Belt none Gloucester: HDT 63%, approval 95.5% (21/22), Green Belt none Great Yarmouth: HDT 92%, approval 92.3% (24/26), Green Belt none Harborough: HDT 139%, approval 91.5% (43/47), Green Belt none Forest of Dean: HDT 128%, approval 69.4% (25/36), Green Belt none Fenland: HDT 117%, approval 80.3% (49/61), Green Belt none Folkestone and Hythe: HDT 57%, approval 75.0% (24/32), Green Belt none Exeter: HDT 102%, approval 78.3% (36/46), Green Belt none Fareham: HDT 60%, approval 94.4% (34/36), Green Belt none Leicester: HDT 39%, approval 76.5% (52/68), Green Belt none Lewes: HDT 60%, approval 57.1% (24/42), Green Belt none Maldon: HDT 143%, approval 50.9% (29/57), Green Belt none Malvern Hills: HDT 101%, approval 60.0% (30/50), Green Belt none Mid Devon: HDT 103%, approval 85.7% (30/35), Green Belt none Mid Suffolk: HDT 227%, approval 79.7% (51/64), Green Belt none Melton: HDT 190%, approval 90.7% (49/54), Green Belt none Mansfield: HDT 134%, approval 93.8% (45/48), Green Belt none Milton Keynes: HDT 142%, approval 76.0% (57/75), Green Belt none North Norfolk: HDT 54%, approval 88.2% (30/34), Green Belt none North West Leicestershire: HDT 184%, approval 92.2% (47/51), Green Belt none North East Lincolnshire: HDT 244%, approval 84.0% (42/50), Green Belt none North Lincolnshire: HDT 137%, approval 70.7% (41/58), Green Belt none Ipswich: HDT 63%, approval 86.7% (26/30), Green Belt none Hull: HDT 107%, approval 91.4% (32/35), Green Belt none King's Lynn and West Norfolk: HDT 100%, approval 83.3% (45/54), Green Belt none Hartlepool: HDT 339%, approval 100.0% (26/26), Green Belt none Hastings: HDT 44%, approval 91.3% (21/23), Green Belt none Herefordshire: HDT 96%, approval 82.4% (61/74), Green Belt none Hinckley and Bosworth: HDT 134%, approval 76.1% (51/67), Green Belt none Huntingdonshire: HDT 136%, approval 84.8% (56/66), Green Belt none Horsham: HDT 44%, approval 48.9% (22/45), Green Belt none Isle of Wight: HDT 37%, approval 74.5% (35/47), Green Belt none Hart: HDT 137%, approval 52.4% (11/21), Green Belt none South Kesteven: HDT 97%, approval 87.2% (41/47), Green Belt none Southampton: HDT 30%, approval 78.3% (18/23), Green Belt none Rushmoor: HDT 176%, approval 91.3% (21/23), Green Belt none Rutland: HDT 89%, approval 69.0% (29/42), Green Belt none Rother: HDT 35%, approval 83.7% (36/43), Green Belt none Redcar and Cleveland: HDT 841%, approval 82.6% (19/23), Green Belt none Reading: HDT 136%, approval 64.9% (24/37), Green Belt none Peterborough: HDT 100%, approval 78.6% (44/56), Green Belt none West Berkshire: HDT 114%, approval 60.6% (43/71), Green Belt none Wealden: HDT 89%, approval 68.8% (86/125), Green Belt none Winchester: HDT 174%, approval 86.7% (26/30), Green Belt none Plymouth: HDT 87%, approval 97.1% (33/34), Green Belt none Broadland: HDT 111%, approval 91.3% (21/23), Green Belt none North Northamptonshire: HDT 108%, approval 74.8% (80/107), Green Belt none West Devon: HDT 87%, approval 63.6% (14/22), Green Belt none South Hams: HDT 87%, approval 88.1% (52/59), Green Belt none West Lindsey: HDT 141%, approval 86.7% (52/60), Green Belt none North Devon: HDT 122%, approval 91.8% (45/49), Green Belt none Torridge: HDT 122%, approval 81.7% (49/60), Green Belt none North Kesteven: HDT 141%, approval 86.5% (32/37), Green Belt none South Norfolk: HDT 111%, approval 84.6% (33/39), Green Belt none Thanet: HDT 70%, approval 82.1% (55/67), Green Belt none Torbay: HDT 40%, approval 85.0% (34/40), Green Belt none Telford and Wrekin: HDT 309%, approval 95.2% (60/63), Green Belt none Swindon: HDT 87%, approval 90.9% (30/33), Green Belt none Swale: HDT 70%, approval 75.9% (66/87), Green Belt none Stroud: HDT 85%, approval 71.7% (33/46), Green Belt none Stockton-on-Tees: HDT 152%, approval 83.3% (30/36), Green Belt none Tendring: HDT 152%, approval 69.4% (43/62), Green Belt none Test Valley: HDT 64%, approval 63.0% (17/27), Green Belt none Teignbridge: HDT 78%, approval 76.9% (30/39), Green Belt none South Holland: HDT 161%, approval 84.7% (61/72), Green Belt none West Suffolk: HDT 89%, approval 83.3% (45/54), Green Belt none Norwich: HDT 111%, approval 75.0% (15/20), Green Belt none East Suffolk: HDT 91%, approval 91.2% (62/68), Green Belt none West Northamptonshire: HDT 104%, approval 82.1% (101/123), Green Belt none Cotswold: HDT 68%, approval 75.8% (25/33), Green Belt 0% East Staffordshire: HDT 181%, approval 96.3% (52/54), Green Belt 0% Mid Sussex: HDT 104%, approval 85.0% (51/60), Green Belt 0% Maidstone: HDT 93%, approval 72.4% (42/58), Green Belt 1% Wiltshire: HDT 93%, approval 74.7% (115/154), Green Belt 2% West Oxfordshire: HDT 104%, approval 63.6% (35/55), Green Belt 2% Wyre: HDT 237%, approval 94.9% (37/39), Green Belt 2% Lancaster: HDT 48%, approval 53.7% (29/54), Green Belt 3% East Cambridgeshire: HDT 116%, approval 86.0% (49/57), Green Belt 3% Derby: HDT 71%, approval 92.7% (51/55), Green Belt 3% Luton: HDT 54%, approval 83.7% (41/49), Green Belt 3% Liverpool: HDT 87%, approval 77.0% (47/61), Green Belt 4% County Durham: HDT 131%, approval 85.4% (105/123), Green Belt 4% Preston: HDT 460%, approval 97.0% (65/67), Green Belt 5% Bristol: HDT 41%, approval 90.2% (92/102), Green Belt 6% Uttlesford: HDT 108%, approval 72.9% (70/96), Green Belt 6% New Forest: HDT 48%, approval 78.4% (29/37), Green Belt 7% Bolsover: HDT 205%, approval 100.0% (25/25), Green Belt 7% Stevenage: HDT 78%, approval 95.5% (21/22), Green Belt 7% Medway: HDT 60%, approval 86.7% (65/75), Green Belt 7% South Derbyshire: HDT 195%, approval 85.1% (40/47), Green Belt 7% High Peak: HDT 121%, approval 80.0% (16/20), Green Belt 7% Shropshire: HDT 124%, approval 78.0% (85/109), Green Belt 8% Burnley: HDT 478%, approval 90.5% (19/21), Green Belt 10% Newark and Sherwood: HDT 139%, approval 71.4% (35/49), Green Belt 10% Sandwell: HDT 34%, approval 88.7% (47/53), Green Belt 10% Dorset: HDT 88%, approval 79.1% (144/182), Green Belt 10% Nottingham: HDT 108%, approval 97.6% (83/85), Green Belt 10% Manchester: HDT 75%, approval 91.3% (136/149), Green Belt 11% Wolverhampton: HDT 59%, approval 95.8% (46/48), Green Belt 12% Cheltenham: HDT 56%, approval 75.0% (15/20), Green Belt 12% Pendle: HDT 135%, approval 77.1% (27/35), Green Belt 12% Wychavon: HDT 103%, approval 63.9% (39/61), Green Belt 13% Tewkesbury: HDT 219%, approval 88.5% (54/61), Green Belt 13% Cherwell: HDT 134%, approval 70.2% (59/84), Green Belt 14% Birmingham: HDT 57%, approval 85.5% (124/145), Green Belt 14% Southend-on-Sea: HDT 20%, approval 86.7% (26/30), Green Belt 14% Northumberland: HDT 262%, approval 76.0% (98/129), Green Belt 14% Vale of White Horse: HDT 192%, approval 77.3% (51/66), Green Belt 14% Coventry: HDT 47%, approval 79.2% (80/101), Green Belt 15% Wokingham: HDT 100%, approval 69.4% (43/62), Green Belt 16% Dudley: HDT 92%, approval 73.7% (42/57), Green Belt 18% Stafford: HDT 149%, approval 80.6% (25/31), Green Belt 19% Stoke-on-Trent: HDT 66%, approval 76.2% (32/42), Green Belt 19% North Tyneside: HDT 65%, approval 90.6% (29/32), Green Belt 20% South Oxfordshire: HDT 171%, approval 76.3% (58/76), Green Belt 21% Tunbridge Wells: HDT 93%, approval 92.1% (58/63), Green Belt 22% Chesterfield: HDT 168%, approval 92.3% (24/26), Green Belt 22% Stratford-on-Avon: HDT 202%, approval 68.0% (34/50), Green Belt 23% Sunderland: HDT 167%, approval 100.0% (69/69), Green Belt 23% Cambridge: HDT 82%, approval 91.7% (33/36), Green Belt 24% Sheffield: HDT 58%, approval 84.5% (93/110), Green Belt 24.6% South Cambridgeshire: HDT 148%, approval 83.1% (59/71), Green Belt 26% Halton: HDT 170%, approval 97.4% (37/38), Green Belt 26% Slough: HDT 54%, approval 67.6% (25/37), Green Belt 27% Staffordshire Moorlands: HDT 160%, approval 84.6% (22/26), Green Belt 30% Buckinghamshire: HDT 94%, approval 76.3% (174/228), Green Belt 32% Amber Valley: HDT 173%, approval 84.8% (39/46), Green Belt 33% Salford: HDT 178%, approval 91.2% (62/68), Green Belt 33% Cheshire East: HDT 213%, approval 79.6% (90/113), Green Belt 34% East Hertfordshire: HDT 102%, approval 81.5% (44/54), Green Belt 35% Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole: HDT 35%, approval 70.9% (122/172), Green Belt 35% Newcastle upon Tyne: HDT 87%, approval 86.6% (58/67), Green Belt 35% Bracknell Forest: HDT 104%, approval 81.6% (40/49), Green Belt 35% Trafford: HDT 83%, approval 90.9% (40/44), Green Belt 35% South Tyneside: HDT 53%, approval 85.7% (18/21), Green Belt 36% North East Derbyshire: HDT 268%, approval 89.4% (42/47), Green Belt 38% Chelmsford: HDT 110%, approval 73.5% (25/34), Green Belt 38% Central Bedfordshire: HDT 105%, approval 74.4% (87/117), Green Belt 38% Walsall: HDT 56%, approval 69.6% (39/56), Green Belt 38% Blackburn with Darwen: HDT 381%, approval 97.7% (42/43), Green Belt 38% Rushcliffe: HDT 172%, approval 90.5% (57/63), Green Belt 40% Doncaster: HDT 213%, approval 85.7% (78/91), Green Belt 40% Nuneaton and Bedworth: HDT 221%, approval 90.0% (45/50), Green Belt 41% Ashfield: HDT 93%, approval 74.4% (32/43), Green Belt 41% North Somerset: HDT 64%, approval 83.3% (45/54), Green Belt 42% Cheshire West and Chester: HDT 244%, approval 82.8% (53/64), Green Belt 42% Oldham: HDT 115%, approval 81.8% (36/44), Green Belt 43% Surrey Heath: HDT 98%, approval 86.1% (31/36), Green Belt 44% Newcastle-under-Lyme: HDT 94%, approval 79.5% (35/44), Green Belt 45% Wirral: HDT 123%, approval 63.2% (36/57), Green Belt 46% Lichfield: HDT 232%, approval 64.1% (25/39), Green Belt 46% South Gloucestershire: HDT 138%, approval 86.1% (62/72), Green Belt 46% Stockport: HDT 43%, approval 86.5% (32/37), Green Belt 46% Sefton: HDT 135%, approval 87.2% (41/47), Green Belt 47% North Hertfordshire: HDT 75%, approval 87.0% (40/46), Green Belt 47% Tameside: HDT 232%, approval 87.9% (29/33), Green Belt 47% Knowsley: HDT 245%, approval 97.0% (32/33), Green Belt 49% Dacorum: HDT 52%, approval 65.4% (17/26), Green Belt 50% Bolton: HDT 87%, approval 82.4% (70/85), Green Belt 50% Bury: HDT 114%, approval 86.8% (33/38), Green Belt 54% Broxbourne: HDT 110%, approval 88.2% (30/34), Green Belt 55% Wigan: HDT 153%, approval 95.1% (58/61), Green Belt 56% Wyre Forest: HDT 212%, approval 85.2% (23/27), Green Belt 56% Dartford: HDT 96%, approval 72.0% (18/25), Green Belt 56% Rugby: HDT 187%, approval 71.4% (25/35), Green Belt 58% Elmbridge: HDT 59%, approval 62.2% (46/74), Green Belt 58% St Helens: HDT 118%, approval 86.5% (32/37), Green Belt 58% Rochdale: HDT 125%, approval 97.9% (46/47), Green Belt 60% Gateshead: HDT 105%, approval 91.7% (22/24), Green Belt 60% Waverley: HDT 117%, approval 69.1% (76/110), Green Belt 60% North Warwickshire: HDT 164%, approval 68.2% (15/22), Green Belt 61% Warrington: HDT 134%, approval 83.8% (31/37), Green Belt 61% Broxtowe: HDT 109%, approval 82.4% (42/51), Green Belt 61% Kirklees: HDT 65%, approval 90.3% (112/124), Green Belt 61% Leeds: HDT 115%, approval 84.2% (117/139), Green Belt 61% Calderdale: HDT 83%, approval 78.8% (41/52), Green Belt 61% Basildon: HDT 23%, approval 87.1% (27/31), Green Belt 63% Spelthorne: HDT 33%, approval 63.0% (17/27), Green Belt 65% Bradford: HDT 56%, approval 88.8% (79/89), Green Belt 65% Solihull: HDT 53%, approval 86.2% (25/29), Green Belt 67% Warwick: HDT 128%, approval 83.3% (30/36), Green Belt 67% Wakefield: HDT 112%, approval 87.7% (64/73), Green Belt 68% Reigate and Banstead: HDT 102%, approval 70.3% (26/37), Green Belt 68% Barnsley: HDT 75%, approval 85.7% (30/35), Green Belt 68% Rotherham: HDT 139%, approval 92.3% (60/65), Green Belt 70% Bath and North East Somerset: HDT 92%, approval 83.3% (35/42), Green Belt 70% Tonbridge and Malling: HDT 63%, approval 83.7% (41/49), Green Belt 71% Thurrock: HDT 29%, approval 75.0% (15/20), Green Belt 71% Erewash: HDT 49%, approval 81.8% (18/22), Green Belt 72% Chorley: HDT 63%, approval 82.8% (24/29), Green Belt 72% Gedling: HDT 125%, approval 95.7% (22/23), Green Belt 73% Runnymede: HDT 94%, approval 75.8% (25/33), Green Belt 74% Mole Valley: HDT 72%, approval 38.9% (14/36), Green Belt 76% Welwyn Hatfield: HDT 46%, approval 69.2% (27/39), Green Belt 77% Gravesham: HDT 61%, approval 77.3% (17/22), Green Belt 77% Hertsmere: HDT 26%, approval 66.7% (22/33), Green Belt 79% York: HDT 87%, approval 85.5% (47/55), Green Belt 80% St Albans: HDT 46%, approval 61.7% (37/60), Green Belt 82% Windsor and Maidenhead: HDT 74%, approval 64.1% (41/64), Green Belt 82% Guildford: HDT 102%, approval 76.0% (38/50), Green Belt 84% Brentwood: HDT 110%, approval 87.1% (27/31), Green Belt 87% Bromsgrove: HDT 58%, approval 70.8% (17/24), Green Belt 89% West Lancashire: HDT 279%, approval 83.9% (26/31), Green Belt 90% Epping Forest: HDT 66%, approval 47.4% (18/38), Green Belt 91% Sevenoaks: HDT 25%, approval 66.7% (32/48), Green Belt 93% Tandridge: HDT 38%, approval 67.7% (21/31), Green Belt 94% Mole Valley Epping Forest Sevenoaks St Albans Bristol Wolverhampton Sandwell Horsham Wirral Birmingham Sheffield Green Belt ≥25% of land · 85 authorities Green Belt <25% of land · 144 authorities HDT above 250%, plotted at the edge Group median, below 75% and 95%+ bands
The 229 eligible councils outside London (at least 20 major housing decisions, 2022 Q2 to 2025 Q1). Source: PlanningLens analysis of MHCLG statistics. Download.
The 27 Green Belt-heavy councils that failed the test
Lowest approval rate first. All scored below 75% on the 2025 Housing Delivery Test.
CouncilHousing target achievedMajor schemes approvedGreen Belt
Mole Valley72%39%14 of 3676%
Epping Forest66%47%18 of 3891%
St Albans46%62%37 of 6082%
Elmbridge59%62%46 of 7458%
Spelthorne33%63%17 of 2765%
Windsor and Maidenhead74%64%41 of 6482%
Dacorum52%65%17 of 2650%
Hertsmere26%67%22 of 3379%
Sevenoaks25%67%32 of 4893%
Slough54%68%25 of 3727%
Tandridge38%68%21 of 3194%
Welwyn Hatfield46%69%27 of 3977%
Walsall56%70%39 of 5638%
Bromsgrove58%71%17 of 2489%
Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole35%71%122 of 17235%
Thurrock29%75%15 of 2071%
Gravesham61%77%17 of 2277%
Erewash49%82%18 of 2272%
Chorley63%83%24 of 2972%
North Somerset64%83%45 of 5442%
Tonbridge and Malling63%84%41 of 4971%
South Tyneside53%86%18 of 2136%
Solihull53%86%25 of 2967%
Stockport43%86%32 of 3746%
Basildon23%87%27 of 3163%
Bradford56%89%79 of 8965%
Kirklees65%90%112 of 12461%
The 35 other councils that failed the test
Highest approval rate first. All scored below 75% on the 2025 Housing Delivery Test.
CouncilHousing target achievedMajor schemes approvedGreen Belt
Wolverhampton59%96%46 of 4812%
Gloucester63%95%21 of 22none
Fareham60%94%34 of 36none
Derby71%93%51 of 553%
Hastings44%91%21 of 23none
North Tyneside65%91%29 of 3220%
Bristol41%90%92 of 1026%
Sandwell34%89%47 of 5310%
North Norfolk54%88%30 of 34none
Southend-on-Sea20%87%26 of 3014%
Ipswich63%87%26 of 30none
Medway60%87%65 of 757%
Charnwood62%87%45 of 52none
Birmingham57%86%124 of 14514%
Torbay40%85%34 of 40none
Sheffield58%85%93 of 11024.6%
Rother35%84%36 of 43none
Luton54%84%41 of 493%
Thanet70%82%55 of 67none
Coventry47%79%80 of 10115%
New Forest48%78%29 of 377%
Southampton30%78%18 of 23none
Eastbourne23%78%18 of 23none
Leicester39%76%52 of 68none
Stoke-on-Trent66%76%32 of 4219%
Swale70%76%66 of 87none
Cotswold68%76%25 of 330%
Cheltenham56%75%15 of 2012%
Folkestone and Hythe57%75%24 of 32none
Isle of Wight37%74%35 of 47none
Brighton and Hove50%74%26 of 35none
Test Valley64%63%17 of 27none
Lewes60%57%24 of 42none
Lancaster48%54%29 of 543%
Horsham44%49%22 of 45none
Pre-registered anomaly lists (Rules A and B)

The pre-registration committed us to publish two rule-based lists in full. Rule A: below 75% on the test with an approval rate in the top quarter of eligible councils (87.9% or above). Rule B: 100% or more on the test with an approval rate in the bottom quarter (73.7% or below).

Rule A: failed the test, top-quarter approval rate (11 councils)
CouncilHousing target achievedMajor schemes approvedGreen Belt
Wolverhampton59%96%46 of 4812%
Gloucester63%95%21 of 22none
Fareham60%94%34 of 36none
Derby71%93%51 of 553%
Hastings44%91%21 of 23none
North Tyneside65%91%29 of 3220%
Kirklees65%90%112 of 12461%
Bristol41%90%92 of 1026%
Bradford56%89%79 of 8965%
Sandwell34%89%47 of 5310%
North Norfolk54%88%30 of 34none
Rule B: hit the target, bottom-quarter approval rate (25 councils)
CouncilHousing target achievedMajor schemes approvedGreen Belt
Maldon143%51%29 of 57none
Hart137%52%11 of 21none
Malvern Hills101%60%30 of 50none
West Berkshire114%61%43 of 71none
Babergh147%62%25 of 40none
Wirral123%63%36 of 5746%
West Oxfordshire104%64%35 of 552%
Wychavon103%64%39 of 6113%
Lichfield232%64%25 of 3946%
Reading136%65%24 of 37none
Chichester124%66%29 of 44none
Braintree150%67%46 of 69none
Stratford-on-Avon202%68%34 of 5023%
North Warwickshire164%68%15 of 2261%
Waverley117%69%76 of 11060%
Wokingham100%69%43 of 6216%
Tendring152%69%43 of 62none
Forest of Dean128%69%25 of 36none
Cherwell134%70%59 of 8414%
Reigate and Banstead102%70%26 of 3768%
North Lincolnshire137%71%41 of 58none
Newark and Sherwood139%71%35 of 4910%
Rugby187%71%25 of 3558%
Uttlesford108%73%70 of 966%
Chelmsford110%74%25 of 3438%
Full robustness figures

The result held when we moved the definition of "heavily Green Belt" anywhere from 15% to 50% of council land, and when we doubled the minimum number of planning decisions required for inclusion. Further statistical checks pointed in the same direction. These checks were run after the pre-registered Green Belt cut and are labelled exploratory.

Correlations. Across all 229 councils the Spearman correlation between test result and approval rate is +0.25 (95% interval +0.11 to +0.37), a weak positive association under the pre-registered rule. In the 85 Green Belt-heavy councils it is +0.44 (+0.23 to +0.61); the gap between the failing and passing bands is -14.2 points (-18.8 to -2.0). In the other 144 it is +0.13 (-0.02 to +0.30); gap +0.5 points (-6.7 to +4.4).

Threshold sweep. Moving the Green Belt line from 15% to 50% of land area leaves the heavy-group correlation between +0.38 and +0.45.

Green Belt threshold sweep (floor of 20 decisions)
ThresholdHeavy nHeavy correlation (95% interval)Other nOther correlation (95% interval)Difference
10% or more109+0.30 (+0.10 to +0.47)120+0.20 (+0.02 to +0.37)+0.10
15% or more98+0.38 (+0.19 to +0.56)131+0.15 (-0.03 to +0.31)+0.24
20% or more93+0.38 (+0.18 to +0.55)136+0.15 (-0.01 to +0.32)+0.23
25% or more85+0.44 (+0.25 to +0.61)144+0.13 (-0.03 to +0.28)+0.31
30% or more82+0.42 (+0.22 to +0.60)147+0.16 (-0.00 to +0.31)+0.27
40% or more65+0.39 (+0.16 to +0.60)164+0.19 (+0.04 to +0.34)+0.20
50% or more49+0.45 (+0.19 to +0.66)180+0.19 (+0.05 to +0.34)+0.27

Permutation test. Shuffling the Green Belt labels 5,000 times, the observed difference in correlation between the groups (+0.31) is exceeded in 1.6% of shuffles (p = 0.016). At a floor of 40 decisions: +0.36, p = 0.046.

Higher sample floor. At 40 decisions per council: +0.47 (+0.16 to +0.69) in 45 Green Belt-heavy councils, medians 70.3% failing and 84.8% passing; +0.10 (-0.10 to +0.30) in the other 93, medians 83.7% and 81.9%.

Continuous moderator. Rank regression of approval on test result, Green Belt share and their interaction: interaction coefficient +0.34, t = 1.44, bootstrap interval -0.13 to +0.79. Same direction, not conclusive alone.

Pre-registered sensitivities. Excluding councils above 200% on the test, the overall correlation falls from +0.25 to +0.17 (+0.03 to +0.30), consistent with the Green Belt pattern. For minor housing applications (under ten homes) the pattern is weaker but present: +0.26 (+0.14 to +0.37), medians 69.4% failing and 73.6% passing. London, analysed separately as pre-registered: 21 boroughs, correlation -0.30 (-0.72 to +0.21), not comparable for inference.

Full band statistics, Green Belt under 25% (144 councils)
Housing Delivery Test resultCouncilsMedian approval95% intervalInterquartile rangeDecisions-weighted approvalMajor decisions
Below 75% (failed)3583.7%76.5 to 86.775.8 to 87.581.0%1,762
75% to under 85%976.9%69.6 to 92.169.7 to 91.779.0%490
85% to under 95%2174.7%71.7 to 84.269.0 to 88.178.7%1,465
95% and above (passed)7983.2%79.7 to 85.175.5 to 90.681.0%4,444
Full band statistics, Green Belt 25% or more (85 councils)
Housing Delivery Test resultCouncilsMedian approval95% intervalInterquartile rangeDecisions-weighted approvalMajor decisions
Below 75% (failed)2770.8%66.7 to 82.866.0 to 83.573.4%1,292
75% to under 85%486.3%78.8 to 90.984.0 to 87.985.3%177
85% to under 95%880.9%75.8 to 85.076.2 to 83.979.7%597
95% and above (passed)4685.0%83.1 to 87.181.5 to 89.183.4%2,368
Full methodology

Sources in detail. Housing Delivery Test: 2025 measurement (301 authorities with a numeric result). Planning decisions from the PS2 open data table in MHCLG's Live tables on planning application statistics (PS2 open data table), 1 April 2022 to 31 March 2025: the exact test window. Green Belt share of land area from Local authority Green Belt statistics for England: 2024 to 2025 (area at 31 December 2024); authorities absent from that table are treated as having no Green Belt. Authorities are joined on ONS code, not by name, with the two-code correction described in the data correction note below.

Cohort and outcome. "Major dwellings (all)": development of ten or more dwellings, or a site of half a hectare or more where the number is not known, assigned by principal use and including applications subject to performance agreements and extensions of time. Approval rate is granted divided by decisions over the twelve quarters. An authority is included with returns in at least ten of the twelve quarters (9 excluded, all reorganised: Allerdale, Carlisle, Copeland, Mendip, North Yorkshire, Sedgemoor, Somerset West and Taunton, South Somerset, Westmorland and Furness) and at least 20 major decisions (42 excluded, listed in the CSV). That leaves 250 authorities in England, 229 outside London.

Reserved matters and section 73. PS2 counts every decision on an application of the type, including approvals of reserved matters and section 73 variations, which are predominantly granted. The reported rate is therefore an upward-biased measure of the approval rate for brand-new schemes, and whether that bias varies between authorities cannot be established from PS2. Our pre-registration described the inflation as assumed uniform across authorities; subsequent review judged that assumption too strong, and no uniformity is claimed here. The one diagnostic available: across the 32 authorities where PlanningLens's own scheme-level measure (which excludes reserved matters and s73) covers at least 40% of PS2's decisions, the PS2 rate exceeds the PlanningLens rate by a median +2.5 points (interquartile range -1.0 to +8.3), with no obvious pattern against the test result (correlation -0.11) or Green Belt share (-0.12; median gap +3.2 points in Green Belt-heavy authorities, +1.8 elsewhere). Both measures are imperfect, so this is reassurance, not proof.

Data correction, 3 September 2026. MHCLG's Housing Delivery Test and PS2 files carry Sheffield as E08000039 and Barnsley as E08000038; MHCLG's Green Belt table carries the same two authorities as E08000019 and E08000016. In the analysis frozen on 2 September neither Green Belt row joined, so both councils were treated as having no Green Belt. The mismatch was found after those results had been read. Because it is an identifier error in the source files rather than an analytical choice, the two codes were mapped, the analysis was re-run unchanged in every other respect, and the results were re-frozen on 3 September; the correction is logged as amendment 4 of the pre-registration and both results files are published below. Sheffield (24.6% Green Belt) stays in the under-25% group; Barnsley (68%) moves to the 25%-or-more group, which becomes 85 councils against 144. Barnsley scored 75% on the test, so it is in neither the failing nor the passing band: the four headline medians and their sample sizes are unchanged. The two correlations moved from +0.45 to +0.44 and from +0.13 to +0.13, and the exploratory permutation p-value at the 20-decision floor from 0.011 to 0.016.

Decisions, not dwellings. PS2 counts decisions. Two councils with the same approval rate may have permitted very different numbers of homes. PlanningLens's scheme-level data, which can supply unit counts, is not used for any figure on this page.

Timing. Approvals and completions are measured over the same three years. Permissions granted in the window mostly complete after it, and homes completed in it were mostly permitted before it. The comparison describes whether the test's consequence tracks contemporaneous approval behaviour, which is what a decision-making sanction acts on.

Principal-use classification and London. Dense mixed-use schemes are filed under their principal commercial use, so "major dwellings" undercounts city-centre housing, most of all in London. London was analysed separately as the pre-registration required: 21 boroughs eligible, three in the passing band, correlation -0.30 (-0.72 to +0.21). It is reported in the results file and is not in the headline sample.

Statistics. Spearman rank correlation between test result and approval rate; 95% intervals by bootstrap over authorities (2,000 resamples, percentile method, seed 20260902). Medians per band with bootstrap intervals and interquartile ranges; the contrast between the failing and passing bands with its interval; decisions-weighted rates alongside medians. Interpretation rules fixed in advance: a correlation within 0.15 of zero whose interval lies within 0.30 of zero is "no meaningful relationship"; 0.15 to 0.30 is weak; 0.30 or more is moderate or stronger. No approval level is a pass-or-fail threshold. Every figure on this page, intervals included, is recomputed from the published CSV when the page is built and checked against the frozen results file.

Pre-registration. The question, sources, window, cohort, floors, bands, statistics, interpretation rules, cuts and anomaly rules were frozen at about 18:50 on 2 September 2026, before any PS2 decision value was read. The text at freeze has SHA-256 2ce6a5780b73f32f...c53f1608. Four amendments were logged afterwards in its section 12 (file encoding; the Green Belt source vintage; one extra reported cut; and, on 3 September, the Sheffield and Barnsley identifier correction described above); none altered a pre-registered cut, threshold or rule. The Green Belt split that forms the headline comes from a pre-registered sensitivity cut; the robustness checks on it were run afterwards and are labelled exploratory.